The US dollar registered broad declines during the week of September 28 – October 2, 2026, as markets priced in additional Federal Reserve easing. EUR/USD climbed from 1.1375 to 1.1392 (+0.15%) by mid-week, while USD/JPY sold off sharply from 158.81 to 157.71 (-0.69%). GBP/USD held firm near 1.3232, supported by resilient UK data.
EUR/USD Spot Rate: 1.1392
▲ +0.15% 🔵 Outlook: Neutral | Support: 1.1320 · Resistance: 1.1450
Week in Review
EUR/USD eked out a modest gain from the prior Friday close of 1.1375, though the pair remained well off early-September highs above 1.1600. The ECB’s dovish hold and soft Eurozone inflation prints capped upside.
Key Drivers: Divergent Fed-ECB rate-cut pricing · Soft Eurozone CPI momentum · Position squaring ahead of month-end
Forward Outlook
The pair faces stiff technical resistance near 1.1450; a break higher requires a clear risk-on impulse or materially softer US payrolls.
GBP/USD Spot Rate: 1.3232
▲ +0.16% 🟢 Outlook: Bullish | Support: 1.3150 · Resistance: 1.3300
Week in Review
Cable inched up from 1.3211, underpinned by better-than-expected UK services PMI and sticky wage data that reduced BoE easing expectations. The pair outperformed EUR/USD on the crosses.
Key Drivers: Resilient UK services sector · Sticky UK wage growth · Reduced BoE rate-cut pricing
Forward Outlook
GBP/USD looks to test the 1.3300 handle; conviction will depend on whether UK GDP data confirms economic resilience.
USD/JPY Spot Rate: 157.71
▼ -0.69% 🔴 Outlook: Bearish | Support: 156.80 · Resistance: 159.20
Week in Review
USD/JPY fell sharply from 158.81 as Treasury yields declined and Japanese officials reiterated discomfort with excessive yen weakness. The move accelerated through the 158.00 option barrier.
Key Drivers: Drop in US 10-year Treasury yields · Verbal intervention from Japanese authorities · Wider JPY short covering
Forward Outlook
A sustained break below 157.00 would open the door to 155.50, though any rebound in US yields could quickly reverse the move.
AUD/USD Spot Rate: 0.6875
▲ +0.22% 🔵 Outlook: Neutral | Support: 0.6810 · Resistance: 0.6920
Week in Review
The Aussie benefited from broad dollar softness and firm iron-ore prices, grinding higher from 0.6860. RBA rhetoric remained hawkish relative to other G10 central banks, lending support.
Key Drivers: Broad USD weakness · Elevated iron-ore prices · Hawkish RBA policy stance
Forward Outlook
AUD/USD is approaching key resistance at 0.6900; Chinese stimulus headlines will dictate whether the rally extends.
EUR/GBP Spot Rate: 0.8610
→ -0.01% 🔵 Outlook: Neutral | Support: 0.8580 · Resistance: 0.8640
Week in Review
The cross was virtually unchanged, calculated from EUR/USD at 1.1392 and GBP/USD at 1.3232. Sterling’s data-driven outperformance offset euro strength against the dollar.
Key Drivers: UK data resilience vs Eurozone stagnation · Cross-asset flows into sterling · Range-bound technical picture
Forward Outlook
EUR/GBP remains locked in a tight 0.8580-0.8640 range; a break requires a material shift in UK or Eurozone rate expectations.
⚠️ Risk Events — Next Week
| Event | Date | Impact | Affected |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Nonfarm Payrolls (September) | October 9, 2026 | high | USD, JPY, EUR/USD |
| ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | October 8, 2026 | medium | EUR, EUR/GBP |
| UK Monthly GDP (August) | October 7, 2026 | medium | GBP, EUR/GBP |
Analyst Note
Price action through September 28 suggests the dollar remains on the defensive as G10 counterparts benefit from relative policy resilience. Traders should watch US payrolls for confirmation of soft-landing pricing; a print north of 200k could revive USD demand quickly.
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Published by Elven Financial Research.
