Elven Financial

The week of April 6–10, 2026 was defined by a sharp reassertion of USD strength following the White House’s confirmation of broad-based tariff escalation, driving the DXY materially higher across the board. EUR/USD opened the week at 1.1558 and extended losses as the ECB signalled it remains on track to cut rates toward 2.00%, while the FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.75–4.00% with no near-term easing signal. USD/JPY pushed deeper into intervention-watch territory above 150, with the yen pressured by a widening US–Japan rate differential and rising energy import costs. AUD/USD found partial support from resilient Chinese trade data but could not withstand the broad dollar bid, finishing the week modestly lower.

The week’s dominant theme was safe-haven dollar demand driven by Middle East geopolitical escalation and surging energy prices. USD/JPY’s breach of 160.00 represents a critical inflection point – BoJ intervention could trigger violent reversal effects across G10. Central bank policy divergence between BoE and ECB provides the most reliable structural trade setup for the coming weeks.

The U.S. dollar showed broad strength during the week of March 23-27, 2026, driven by Middle East energy concerns and safe-haven flows. GBP/USD declined -2.01% to 1.34, while USD/JPY rallied +1.39% to 158. EUR/USD remained under pressure as European energy vulnerability weighed on sentiment, and AUD/USD edged up +0.38% to 0.71 despite dollar firmness.

EUR/USD fell 0.42% to 1.1450, GBP/USD declined 0.55% to 1.3265, USD/JPY rose 0.38% to 159.40, and AUD/USD dropped 0.28% to 0.7094 during the week of March 16-20, 2026. Geopolitical risk from the US-Iran conflict kept the dollar bid as safe-haven demand collided with rate-cut expectations. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan all announced rate decisions within a 48-hour window on Wednesday-Thursday, creating exceptional volatility across major pairs.

FX markets navigated acute geopolitical volatility following US-Israel strikes on Iran in late February, with crude oil surging 30% year-to-date. The USD faced dual pressures from safe-haven flows and Fed easing expectations, while JPY strengthened on risk-off sentiment and BoJ normalization. Commodity currencies showed resilience despite elevated risk, supported by structural bullish positioning and Fed dovish bias.