9 – 15 March 2026
FX markets navigated acute geopolitical volatility following US-Israel strikes on Iran in late February, with crude oil surging 30% year-to-date. The USD faced dual pressures from safe-haven flows and Fed easing expectations, while JPY strengthened on risk-off sentiment and BoJ normalization. Commodity currencies showed resilience despite elevated risk, supported by structural bullish positioning and Fed dovish bias.
EUR/USD Spot Rate: 1.1560
▼ -0.35% 🔵 Outlook: Neutral | Support: 1.1500 · Resistance: 1.1700
Week in Review
EUR/USD traded defensively amid geopolitical uncertainty and consolidation ahead of the ECB meeting. The pair held above critical support at 1.1560-1.1580, with the 1.1500 handle remaining the key level for bears to break to signal broader USD trend resumption.
Key Drivers: ECB policy hold contrasts with Fed easing path · Geopolitical risk-off sentiment pressured euro · China NPC reaffirmed 5% GDP growth target
Forward Outlook
Structural monetary policy divergence between ECB and Fed remains the dominant theme for H1 2026. A break above 1.1700 would open path toward 1.2000, while failure at 1.1500 signals renewed USD strength. ECB meeting outcome is the near-term catalyst.
GBP/USD Spot Rate: 1.3340
▼ -0.25% 🟢 Outlook: Bullish | Support: 1.3200 · Resistance: 1.3340
Week in Review
Cable consolidated near key resistance at 1.3340 after trending higher through late 2025 and early 2026. The pair remains one of the cleaner USD-weakness trends available, having rebounded sharply from the 1.3000 psychological level in November.
Key Drivers: BoE cutting cycle supports GBP relative value · USD weakness from Fed easing expectations · Risk-off flows tempered gains mid-week
Forward Outlook
The 1.3340 level is the critical gate for further upside. A decisive break would target 1.3500-1.3600, aligning with the broader USD bear thesis for H1 2026. BoE policy remains less dovish than Fed, providing fundamental support for sterling strength.
USD/JPY Spot Rate: 149.85
▼ -1.15% 🔴 Outlook: Bearish | Support: 148.65 · Resistance: 150.50
Week in Review
USD/JPY experienced sharp bearish pressure as geopolitical risk-off flows collided with BoJ normalization momentum. The pair broke below the psychological 150.00 level, reversing from 150.50 resistance earlier in the week. JPY safe-haven demand overwhelmed Japan’s oil-importer headwinds despite crude up 30% YTD.
Key Drivers: Safe-haven flows from Middle East conflict · BoJ rate hike expectations building (0.75% current) · Fed easing path narrows yield differential
Forward Outlook
This is the highest-conviction bearish setup across major pairs. Convergence of BoJ normalization, Fed cuts, and sustained geopolitical risk points to 148.65 then 145.85 (200-day MA). Institutional forecasts target 146-148 by year-end 2026. The 160.00 level remains the Finance Ministry’s intervention threshold.
AUD/USD Spot Rate: 0.6915
▲ +0.45% 🟢 Outlook: Bullish | Support: 0.6900 · Resistance: 0.6950
Week in Review
AUD/USD demonstrated resilience despite geopolitical turmoil, supported by multi-year bullish positioning and structural commodity demand. The pair found support near 0.6900-0.6920, maintaining its position above the broken 200-week MA at 0.6643.
Key Drivers: Fed easing bias supports risk-sensitive AUD · China 5% GDP target reinforces commodity outlook · Australia’s iron ore and coal export strength
Forward Outlook
The structural setup for AUD/USD ranks among the strongest in G10 for 2026. A sustained break above 0.6950 would target 0.7000 then 0.7200. The pair benefits from narrowing Fed-RBA policy divergence and China’s stable growth trajectory, with mid-2026 targets at 0.6940-0.6950 intact.
EUR/GBP Spot Rate: 0.8665
▼ -0.10% 🔵 Outlook: Neutral | Support: 0.8600 · Resistance: 0.8750
Week in Review
EUR/GBP traded in a narrow range as both ECB and BoE maintained cautious policy stances. Sterling’s relative outperformance against the USD translated to marginal EUR/GBP weakness, though the cross remains range-bound.
Key Drivers: BoE less dovish than ECB on policy outlook · UK economic resilience vs Eurozone fragility · Cross-currents from geopolitical risk premium
Forward Outlook
EUR/GBP remains locked in a broad 0.8600-0.8750 range established in late 2025. A break below 0.8600 would signal sustained sterling strength, while ECB policy surprises could push toward 0.8800. Relative monetary policy trajectories will determine breakout direction.
⚠️ Risk Events — Next Week
| Event | Date | Impact | Affected |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Nonfarm Payrolls (February) | March 13 | high | USD, AUD, JPY |
| ECB Policy Decision Follow-through | March 12 | high | EUR, GBP |
| Japan Wage Data (Labor Cash Earnings) | March 12 | medium | JPY |
| China Trade Balance (February) | March 14 | medium | AUD, CNH |
Analyst Note
The convergence of geopolitical shock, energy price surge, and monetary policy divergence creates a complex environment favoring JPY and selective commodity currencies. USD directional conviction remains elusive absent clearer Fed guidance. Position conservatively with reduced size and respect technical levels strictly given elevated volatility regime.
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Published by Elven Financial Research.