Oil Above $110:
The Gulf Is
Shutting Down
When we published our March 6 analysis, oil was at $82 and the disruption was being called a “supply risk.” Nine days into Operation Epic Fury, Brent has broken $110, WTI just posted the largest weekly gain in the history of the futures contract (dating back to 1983), and three sovereign oil exporters have declared force majeure. The Barclays worst-case scenario from last week is now the base case.
The Numbers: Monday, March 9, 2026
Complete Oil & Gas Infrastructure Register — Updated March 9
The following is the complete, updated record of every confirmed oil and gas asset that has been attacked, shut down, or placed under force majeure as of March 9, 2026. New entries since the March 6 report are marked.
| Asset / Facility | Country | Capacity | Status | Latest Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar LNG — Ras Laffan World’s largest LNG producer |
🇶🇦 Qatar | 81M mt/yr LNG (~20% global supply) | FORCE MAJEURE | FM declared Mar 4. Attacked Mar 2. All LNG + downstream (urea, polymers, methanol, aluminium) halted. Minister al-Kaabi warned Mar 6: “$150/bbl could bring down economies of the world.” Restart will take at least one month. |
| Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) All crude + refined product exports |
🇰🇼 Kuwait | 2.6M bpd crude + 1.4M bpd refining | FORCE MAJEURE | FM declared Mar 7. Cuts started at −100K bpd, expected to nearly triple by Mar 8 with further reductions tied to storage levels. Kuwait has ZERO pipeline bypass — 100% Hormuz dependent. Refineries Al-Zour, Mina Al-Ahmadi, Mina Abdullah all affected. |
| Iraq Southern Fields Rumaila (BP/PetroChina), West Qurna 2 (Lukoil), Maysan |
🇮🇶 Iraq | Pre-war: 4.3M bpd; Now: 1.3M bpd | COLLAPSED −70% | As of Mar 8, output has fallen 70% from 4.3M to just 1.3M bpd. Rumaila −700K, West Qurna 2 −460K, Maysan −325K confirmed. Storage at southern Basra ports at critical capacity. 97% of Iraq’s exports route through Hormuz. |
| ⚡ NEW: Shaybah Oilfield Saudi Aramco — Empty Quarter desert |
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 1,000,000 bpd | UNDER ATTACK | Saudi air defences intercepted 20 drones launched in 5 waves toward Shaybah overnight Mar 7–8. Field not yet offline but attack signals Iran escalating from refineries to upstream production. Shaybah is one of world’s largest oil fields. |
| ⚡ NEW: Berri Offshore Field Saudi Aramco offshore |
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 250,000 bpd | MINOR IMPACT | “Minor impact” confirmed following attack, according to a source close to the matter (Argus Media, Mar 8). First confirmed upstream Saudi oil production affected — a qualitative escalation. |
| ⚡ NEW: ADNOC Offshore Fields Abu Dhabi National Oil Company |
🇦🇪 UAE | 3.5M bpd (total ADNOC) | CUTTING | ADNOC confirmed “managing offshore production levels to address storage requirements.” Onshore ops continue. ADNOC’s 1.5M bpd Fujairah bypass pipeline partially offsets Hormuz loss, but storage now filling faster than bypass can clear it. |
| ⚡ NEW: Sarsang Field, Kurdistan HKN Energy (US-operated) |
🇮🇶 Iraq (KRI) | 30,000 bpd | OFFLINE | Direct Iranian drone strike confirmed. First US-operated upstream asset directly hit. Production halted immediately. |
| ⚡ NEW: Bahrain Sitra Refinery Bapco |
🇧🇭 Bahrain | 405,000 bpd | HIT | Iranian missile strike confirmed on Bahrain’s only oil refinery. Damage assessment ongoing. |
| ⚡ NEW: MV Louise P (US tanker) | Strait of Hormuz | VLCC | STRICKEN | IRGC drone strike Mar 7. US-flagged tanker hit in Strait of Hormuz. |
| ⚡ NEW: MV Prima (tanker) | Persian Gulf | — | STRICKEN | IRGC drone strike confirmed Mar 7. Persian Gulf. |
| ⚡ NEW: Sonangol Namibe (tanker) | Kuwait (anchorage) | VLCC | OIL SPILL | Large explosion while anchored near Mubarak Al Kabeer Port. Major oil spill confirmed. IRGC claimed responsibility. |
| ⚡ NEW: Safeen Prestige + rescue tugboat | Strait / Gulf | — | SUNK | Malta-flagged Safeen Prestige struck, crew evacuated. Rescue tugboat struck by 2 missiles Mar 6 and later sank. At least 3 crew missing. |
| Ras Tanura Refinery Saudi Aramco |
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 550,000 bpd | OFFLINE | Still offline. Second drone attempt Mar 4 intercepted. 89% of Saudi energy exports transit Hormuz. Juaymah LNG plant (NGLs) also halted after structural damage to delivery system. |
| Kurdistan Fields + Ceyhan Pipeline DNO, Gulf Keystone, Dana Gas |
🇮🇶 Iraq (KRI) | ~400,000 bpd + 1.2M bpd pipeline | HALTED | Still halted. Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey (Iraq’s only Hormuz bypass) also suspended. Region exported 200K bpd by pipeline in February. |
| Karish & Leviathan Gas Fields Israel offshore |
🇮🇱 Israel | Pipeline supply to Egypt & Jordan | HALTED | Still offline. Both Israeli offshore fields shut as security precaution. Egypt and Jordan gas pipeline imports cut off. |
| Fujairah Oil Terminal (UAE) | 🇦🇪 UAE | Key Hormuz bypass endpoint | DAMAGED | Damaged Mar 3 by drone debris. Terminal still partly operational but constrained. ADNOC’s 1.5M bpd bypass pipeline flows here — damage limits the only meaningful alternative to Hormuz for UAE. |
| Port of Duqm + Salalah (Oman) | 🇴🇲 Oman | — | DAMAGED | Oman Oil Marketing Co. storage tank damaged. Both ports disrupted. |
The Legal Shutdown: Who Has Declared Force Majeure
Force majeure — the legal declaration that a company cannot fulfil contractual obligations due to extraordinary circumstances beyond its control — is one of the most consequential market signals possible. It is not a precaution. It is a formal acknowledgment that supply cannot be guaranteed. Three major energy exporters have now filed, covering oil, refined products, and LNG. Qatar’s energy minister has warned all Gulf producers may follow.
How Many Barrels Are Actually Missing Now?
The confirmed supply removal as of March 9 stands between 7 and 9 million barrels per day — nearly double what we reported on March 6. This now comfortably exceeds every single historical oil supply disruption on record. The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo removed 4.4 million bpd and quadrupled prices. The current disruption is running at nearly double that scale, and the S&P Global analysis shows 89% of Saudi energy exports still travel through Hormuz — meaning if Saudi production fields are next, the total could approach 12–15 million bpd.
The mechanism driving the cascade is storage. It is not primarily drone attacks on fields — it is full tanks. As Fortune’s analysis makes clear: “The problem is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That gives Gulf energy producers few export outlets. That sets off a chain reaction — with domestic storage filling up and then forcing the shuttering of production.” Iraq hit its storage ceiling first. Kuwait followed. UAE is next. Saudi Arabia has the East-West pipeline to Yanbu (Red Sea) as a partial buffer — but that pipeline is already running near capacity and is itself a Houthi target.
How Oil at $110 Is Hitting Countries Right Now
The Acute Import Crisis
Inflation Bomb
Strategic Exposure
Nearly Total Dependency
The LNG Gap
Stagflation Risk Returns
Rapid Pivoting
Subsidy Fiscal Crisis
Repricing the Scenarios: The March 6 Worst Case Is Now the Base Case
When we published our March 6 analysis, our three scenarios were: Best Case $72–80, Base Case $90–105, Worst Case $130–180. In three days, the market has blown through the top of the base case and is approaching the threshold of the previous worst case. The scenarios must be repriced upward across the board.
Ceasefire + Rapid Reopening
- Ceasefire within 7–10 days
- IRGC lifts Hormuz threat; insurers reinstate within 2 weeks
- Iraq, Kuwait production restart over 30–45 days
- Qatar LNG takes minimum 1 month to restart regardless
- Price drops sharply on ceasefire news but stays elevated during restart lag
- Structural floor: upstream damage, insurance wariness, storage logistics mean sub-$80 is unlikely for months even in best case
Prolonged War, $130 Oil
- Conflict lasts 4–8 more weeks; Hormuz stays effectively closed
- Iraq and Kuwait remain force majeure; UAE forced to follow
- Saudi Arabia diverts via Yanbu but at ~2–3M bpd (vs 10M+ normal)
- SPR releases blunt but don’t cap price
- Barclays: “$120+ if tensions persist” — now the base, not the extreme
- Goldman Sachs projected $100+ this week — already achieved on Day 9
- Stagflation risk real for US, EU recession risk for energy-import EMs
Ghawar / Mines / Full Gulf Shutdown
- Iran mines the Strait — removal takes months, not days
- Direct strike on Ghawar (Saudi Arabia’s 9M bpd mega-field) or Abqaiq processing
- Saudi Arabia forced to declare force majeure — total Gulf FM cascade
- Total supply removed: 12–15M bpd — historically unprecedented
- Qatar’s warning materializes: “this will bring down economies of the world”
- IEA SPR cannot cover this scale for more than 2–3 months
- $150 target cited by Qatar Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi on Mar 6
- Global recession scenario: 2008-level financial market stress, EM sovereign defaults
The 5 Variables That Decide Where Oil Goes This Week
1. Shaybah Field Status. Twenty drones were intercepted overnight. If the next wave gets through and damages production at Saudi Arabia’s 1-million-bpd Shaybah field, Brent will break $120 within hours and Saudi Arabia will likely declare force majeure. This is now the single most important variable in global oil markets.
2. Whether Ghawar or Abqaiq are targeted. Ghawar is the world’s largest conventional oilfield at approximately 9 million bpd. Abqaiq is Saudi Arabia’s critical oil processing facility — a 2019 strike on Abqaiq temporarily removed 5.7 million bpd and sent oil up 15% in a single session. A successful strike on either at current supply conditions would be orders of magnitude more severe.
3. Insurance reinstatement. Still the single most mechanical indicator. Lloyd’s of London and major P&I clubs must signal willingness to underwrite Hormuz transits before commercial shipping restarts. Watch for any statements from Gard, Skuld, or the International Group of P&I Clubs.
4. Diplomatic track. Trump demanded unconditional Iranian surrender on Saturday. Iran’s foreign minister said they “don’t see any reason why we should negotiate.” The gap is at maximum. However, China — whose economy is increasingly stressed by $110 oil — has reportedly begun quiet mediation between Washington and Tehran. Any credible ceasefire signal would trigger a rapid $15–20/bbl Brent reversal.
5. SPR release announcement. Senate Minority Leader Schumer is publicly calling for a release. Republicans resist. Trump says he’s “not concerned.” If a coordinated IEA release above 1 million bpd sustained for 30+ days is announced, it would cap the immediate price spike — but with Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar all in effective force majeure, the physical gap is large enough that SPR releases would be a bridge, not a solution.
“If the war continues… other Gulf energy producers may be forced to halt exports and declare force majeure. This will bring down economies of the world.”— Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar Energy Minister, Financial Times, March 6, 2026
Nine days ago, this was a supply risk with a $10–12 risk premium on oil. Today it is a supply collapse with oil up 55–64% and three sovereign exporters in force majeure. The Barclays worst-case scenario from our March 6 report — which we assigned a 20–25% probability — is now effectively the market’s base case.
The critical shift since March 6 is qualitative, not just quantitative: Iran has escalated from targeting refineries and tankers to targeting upstream production fields. The 20-drone assault on Shaybah is a declaration of intent. If Iran succeeds in disrupting Saudi upstream production — even partially — the global oil market loses its last meaningful swing producer at the moment of its greatest ever supply stress.
Qatar’s energy minister said it plainly. The data says it plainly. The storage clock is ticking across every Gulf producer. The question is no longer whether this is a crisis — it is how large the crisis becomes before diplomacy, force, or physical exhaustion of missiles and drones brings it to an end.