23-28 February 2026
EUR/USD traded at $1.1886 as markets assess divergent central bank policies. GBP/USD ranges in the mid-1.35s to high-1.37s ahead of key UK GDP data. USD/JPY recovered as the Dollar tested major resistance while traders monitor intervention risks above 160.00.
EUR/USD Spot Rate: 1.1886
▲ +0.35% 🔵 Outlook: Neutral | Support: 1.1500 · Resistance: 1.2050
Week in Review
ECB officials signaled comfort with current settings despite near-term inflation below target. The pair maintained stability around the 1.19 handle as markets await Thursday’s euro-area GDP revisions. Dollar weakness stemming from Fed rate-cut expectations provided support.
Key Drivers: ECB maintaining steady policy stance · US rate-cut pricing supporting EUR strength · Euro appreciation versus dollar over past year
Forward Outlook
Upcoming US jobs and CPI data will determine whether markets price fewer cuts and later cuts, potentially reversing recent dollar weakness. The 1.1500 support level remains critical for directional bias. Euro sensitivity to US data surprises likely to persist given relative yield differentials.
GBP/USD Spot Rate: 1.3650
▲ +0.28% 🔵 Outlook: Neutral | Support: 1.3500 · Resistance: 1.3870
Week in Review
Sterling remains sensitive to news surprises as investors debate timing of the next Bank of England cut. Cable traded within established ranges as the BoE’s close vote history keeps policy expectations fluid. GBP/USD traded as much on US data surprises as UK news given heavier US calendar.
Key Drivers: Bank of England close vote creating uncertainty · US data driving global rate repricing · Thursday UK GDP release key focal point
Forward Outlook
Thursday’s UK GDP can matter for sterling, especially if it changes expectations about when the BoE might cut again. The pair’s recent range between 1.3347 and 1.3867 frames near-term technical boundaries. Dollar trajectory remains dominant driver for Cable direction.
USD/JPY Spot Rate: 149.85
▼ -0.42% 🔴 Outlook: Bearish | Support: 147.50 · Resistance: 152.00
Week in Review
The pair recovered while pushing toward major resistance, remaining a large driver for the entire DXY basket. Japanese political themes continue supporting yen weakness. Markets remain cautious as levels approach historically sensitive intervention zones.
Key Drivers: Japanese political dynamics supporting JPY weakness · Dollar strength testing resistance levels · Finance Ministry intervention concerns above 160.00
Forward Outlook
The 160.00 level has previously been a line-in-the-sand for the Finance Ministry and could compel intervention to support the yen. USD strength combined with yen structural weakness creates competing forces. Traders monitoring carry trade implications for broader FX volatility.
AUD/USD Spot Rate: 0.6385
▲ +0.15% 🔵 Outlook: Neutral | Support: 0.6250 · Resistance: 0.6500
Week in Review
The Aussie consolidated near recent ranges as China growth concerns offset risk-on sentiment. Commodity price stability provided modest support while US rate expectations dominated direction. The pair tracked broader dollar weakness without significant idiosyncratic drivers.
Key Drivers: US dollar weakness providing tailwind · Commodity price stabilization · China economic outlook weighing on sentiment
Forward Outlook
Near-term direction hinges on US economic data releases and any shift in Fed rate-cut expectations. Australian domestic data calendar remains light, leaving AUD exposed to external risk sentiment and US dollar dynamics. China reopening optimism versus growth concerns will shape medium-term trajectory.
EUR/GBP Spot Rate: 0.8710
→ +0.07% 🔵 Outlook: Neutral | Support: 0.8650 · Resistance: 0.8780
Week in Review
EUR/GBP traded around £0.8722 (GBP/EUR ~€1.147) in market reporting. The cross remained range-bound as both central banks maintain cautious stances. The pair plausibly oscillates in the mid-€1.14s to mid-€1.15s with brief moves possible around Thursday’s releases.
Key Drivers: Both ECB and BoE maintaining steady policy · Thursday GDP data from UK and euro-area · Relative growth expectations between regions
Forward Outlook
Updated euro-area GDP estimates can reinforce or challenge the ECB’s steady hands stance while UK data affects BoE cut timing expectations. Technical range between 0.8600-0.8800 likely to contain price action absent major policy shifts. Cross remains driven by relative growth and policy divergence rather than dollar dynamics.
⚠️ Risk Events — Next Week
| Event | Date | Impact | Affected |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Non-Farm Payrolls | March 7, 2026 | high | USD, all majors |
| US CPI Release | March 12, 2026 | high | USD, all majors |
| ECB Policy Meeting | March 6, 2026 | high | EUR, EUR/GBP |
| Bank of England Decision | March 20, 2026 | medium | GBP, EUR/GBP |
Analyst Note
Markets remain in wait-and-see mode ahead of critical US employment and inflation data that will recalibrate Fed expectations. The Dollar’s range-bound behavior reflects balanced positioning, with neither bulls nor bears gaining decisive control. Intervention risk in USD/JPY above 160 and Thursday’s dual GDP releases represent key tactical considerations for positioning into month-end.
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Published by Elven Financial Research.